expected runs 2.62 vs 1.72 (home Points per game 1.45 / runs allowed 1.67) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Atlanta United FC 43.9–70.1%, Draw 8.6–29.4%, FC Cincinnati 12.7–35.3%
Atlanta United FC leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.90 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 19%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
2
2
1
1
3
6
5
3
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
3
4
7
6
3
1
4
2
4
4
2
1
5
1
2
2
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
80%
Under 2.5 goals
20%
Both teams score
77%
Atlanta United FC clean sheet
18%
FC Cincinnati clean sheet
7%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
