expected runs 2.69 vs 1.21 (home Points per game 1.49 / runs allowed 1.19) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Houston Dynamo FC 61.6–76.4%, Draw 11–23%, FC Cincinnati 8.4–19.6%
Houston Dynamo FC leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.48 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 17%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
2
1
1
5
7
4
1
2
7
9
5
2
3
7
8
5
2
4
4
5
3
1
5
2
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
74%
Under 2.5 goals
26%
Both teams score
66%
Houston Dynamo FC clean sheet
30%
FC Cincinnati clean sheet
7%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
