expected runs 1.35 vs 1.37 (away Points per game 1.71 / runs allowed 1.07)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: San Jose Earthquakes 29.3–44.7%, Draw 20.8–35.2%, LAFC 28.3–43.7%
Attacking output is close (1.37 vs 1.35 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
8
6
3
1
8
13
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
56%
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet
26%
LAFC clean sheet
25%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
