MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.60 vs 1.41 (home Points per game 1.64 / runs allowed 1.63) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Real Salt Lake 41%Draw 26%New England Revolution 33%
Estimated range: Real Salt Lake 28–54%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, New England Revolution 20.6–45.4%
Real Salt Lake leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.19 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
6
5
2
1
7
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
5
3
2
4
1
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams score
61%
Real Salt Lake clean sheet
24%
New England Revolution clean sheet
20%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
