MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.40 vs 1.30 (home Points per game 1.44 / runs allowed 1.67) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Atlanta United FC 31.2–46.8%, Draw 20.8–35.2%, New York City FC 26.4–41.6%
Attacking output is close (1.40 vs 1.30 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
8
6
2
1
9
13
8
3
1
2
6
9
6
2
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
56%
Atlanta United FC clean sheet
27%
New York City FC clean sheet
25%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
