expected runs 1.74 vs 1.14 (home Points per game 1.78 / runs allowed 1.44) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Chicago Fire FC 37.8–64.2%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, New York City FC 12.7–35.3%
Chicago Fire FC leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.60 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
6
4
1
1
9
12
6
2
2
8
10
6
2
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
45%
Both teams score
57%
Chicago Fire FC clean sheet
32%
New York City FC clean sheet
18%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
