expected runs 2.79 vs 1.17 (home Points per game 1.61 / runs allowed 1.33) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
New England Revolution 72%Draw 16%Orlando City SC 12%
Estimated range: New England Revolution 63.7–78.3%, Draw 10.1–21.9%, Orlando City SC 6.8–17.2%
New England Revolution leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.62 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 16%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
2
1
1
5
7
4
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
7
8
5
2
4
5
6
3
1
5
3
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
75%
Under 2.5 goals
25%
Both teams score
65%
New England Revolution clean sheet
31%
Orlando City SC clean sheet
6%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
