MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 3.00 vs 1.39 (home Points per game 2.00 / runs allowed 1.63) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Philadelphia Union 62.7–77.3%, Draw 10.1–21.9%, Orlando City SC 8.4–19.6%
Philadelphia Union leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.61 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 16%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
1
1
1
4
6
4
2
2
6
8
5
2
3
6
8
5
3
4
4
6
4
2
5
2
3
3
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
81%
Under 2.5 goals
19%
Both teams score
72%
Philadelphia Union clean sheet
25%
Orlando City SC clean sheet
5%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
