expected runs 2.62 vs 1.52 (away Points per game 1.99 / runs allowed 1.63)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Sporting Kansas City 20%Draw 19%Philadelphia Union 61%
Estimated range: Sporting Kansas City 13.6–26.4%, Draw 12.7–25.3%, Philadelphia Union 53.2–68.8%
Philadelphia Union leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.10 more expected goals). The draw sits at 19%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
4
6
5
3
2
1
2
7
8
7
5
2
2
2
5
6
6
4
2
3
2
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
78%
Under 2.5 goals
22%
Both teams score
73%
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet
7%
Philadelphia Union clean sheet
22%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
