MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.38 vs 1.35 (home Points per game 1.72 / runs allowed 1.44) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
San Jose Earthquakes 60%Draw 20%Portland Timbers 20%
Estimated range: San Jose Earthquakes 52.2–67.8%, Draw 13.6–26.4%, Portland Timbers 13.6–26.4%
San Jose Earthquakes leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.03 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 20%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
3
2
1
5
8
5
2
2
7
9
6
3
3
5
7
5
2
4
3
4
3
1
5
1
2
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
Both teams score
68%
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet
26%
Portland Timbers clean sheet
9%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
