expected runs 2.41 vs 1.45 (home Points per game 2.02 / runs allowed 1.63) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Philadelphia Union 45–71%, Draw 9.4–30.6%, Real Salt Lake 10.2–31.8%
Philadelphia Union leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.96 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 20%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
3
2
1
5
8
5
2
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
5
7
5
3
4
3
4
3
2
5
1
2
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
74%
Under 2.5 goals
26%
Both teams score
70%
Philadelphia Union clean sheet
23%
Real Salt Lake clean sheet
9%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
