expected runs 2.09 vs 1.15 (home Points per game 1.51 / runs allowed 1.33) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: New York City FC 46–72%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, Red Bull New York 8.6–29.4%
New York City FC leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.95 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
4
2
1
8
10
5
2
2
9
10
6
2
3
6
7
4
2
4
3
4
2
5
1
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals
38%
Both teams score
61%
New York City FC clean sheet
32%
Red Bull New York clean sheet
12%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
