expected runs 2.55 vs 1.54 (home Points per game 2.00 / runs allowed 1.85) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Inter Miami CF 46–72%, Draw 9.4–30.6%, San Diego FC 10.2–31.8%
Inter Miami CF leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.01 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 20%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
2
2
1
4
7
5
2
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
5
7
6
3
1
4
3
4
4
2
5
1
2
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
77%
Under 2.5 goals
23%
Both teams score
73%
Inter Miami CF clean sheet
21%
San Diego FC clean sheet
8%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
