expected runs 1.91 vs 1.59 (home Points per game 1.50 / runs allowed 1.89) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Red Bull New York 31.9–58.1%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, San Diego FC 19.7–44.3%
Red Bull New York leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.32 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
4
4
2
1
5
10
7
4
1
2
5
9
7
4
1
3
3
5
4
2
4
2
3
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Under 2.5 goals
33%
Both teams score
69%
Red Bull New York clean sheet
20%
San Diego FC clean sheet
15%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
