expected runs 1.50 vs 1.14 (home Points per game 1.58 / runs allowed 1.33) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
New England Revolution 45%Draw 27%Seattle Sounders FC 28%
Estimated range: New England Revolution 31.9–58.1%, Draw 15.3–38.7%, Seattle Sounders FC 16.1–39.9%
New England Revolution leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.36 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 27% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
7
4
2
1
10
13
7
3
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams score
54%
New England Revolution clean sheet
32%
Seattle Sounders FC clean sheet
22%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
