expected runs 2.90 vs 0.96 (home Points per game 1.64 / runs allowed 1.30) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Seattle Sounders FC 77%Draw 14%Sporting Kansas City 9%
Estimated range: Seattle Sounders FC 70.3–83.7%, Draw 8.4–19.6%, Sporting Kansas City 4.4–13.6%
Seattle Sounders FC leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.93 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 14%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
2
1
6
6
3
2
9
9
4
1
3
9
8
4
1
4
6
6
3
5
3
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
73%
Under 2.5 goals
27%
Both teams score
59%
Seattle Sounders FC clean sheet
38%
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet
6%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
