Sports Illustrated StadiumSep 30 (Wed) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
St. Louis CITY SC44%
Draw26%
Red Bull New York30%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.75 vs 1.44 (away Points per game 1.69 / runs allowed 1.33)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Red Bull New York 31%Draw 25%St. Louis CITY SC 44%
Estimated range: Red Bull New York 18.8–43.2%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, St. Louis CITY SC 30.9–57.1%
St. Louis CITY SC leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.31 more expected goals). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
7
6
4
1
1
5
11
9
5
2
2
4
7
7
4
2
3
2
3
3
2
4
1
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Under 2.5 goals
39%
Both teams score
64%
Red Bull New York clean sheet
17%
St. Louis CITY SC clean sheet
24%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
