MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.34 vs 0.63 (home Points per game 1.70 / runs allowed 0.78) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Nashville SC 69.2–82.8%, Draw 11–23%, Toronto FC 2.9–11.1%
Nashville SC leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.72 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 17%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
3
1
12
8
2
2
14
9
3
3
11
7
2
4
6
4
1
5
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams score
43%
Nashville SC clean sheet
53%
Toronto FC clean sheet
10%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
