expected runs 2.34 vs 1.06 (home Points per game 1.70 / runs allowed 1.33) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: St. Louis CITY SC 58.4–73.6%, Draw 13.6–26.4%, Toronto FC 9.3–20.7%
St. Louis CITY SC leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.29 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 20%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
3
2
1
8
9
4
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
7
8
4
1
4
4
4
2
5
2
2
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals
34%
Both teams score
60%
St. Louis CITY SC clean sheet
35%
Toronto FC clean sheet
10%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
