expected runs 1.51 vs 1.22 (away Points per game 1.92 / runs allowed 1.07)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Chicago Fire FC 30%Draw 27%Vancouver Whitecaps 43%
Estimated range: Chicago Fire FC 17.9–42.1%, Draw 15.3–38.7%, Vancouver Whitecaps 29.9–56.1%
Vancouver Whitecaps leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.29 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 27% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
9
7
4
1
1
7
13
9
5
2
2
5
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
56%
Chicago Fire FC clean sheet
22%
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet
30%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
