Vancouver Whitecaps at Real Salt Lake — Game center Final MLS
Sep 20 (Sun) · 1:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Vancouver Whitecaps 57%
Draw 24%
Real Salt Lake 19%
Locked before start
Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 85% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 81% Hit Real Salt Lake 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 69% Miss Showing 3 of 32 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.91 vs 1.18 (away Points per game 2.15 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.18 - 1.91
+13.2%p vs league average
3.09 vs 3.22 goals
+0.8%p
Head to head Vancouver Whitecaps Real Salt Lake
Model expected goals
1.91 1.18
Data source: ESPN API
Brian White Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sergi Solans Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Thomas Müller Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 1.91 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 3/1 Hit
85% Real Salt Lake 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Real Salt Lake 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Real Salt Lake clean sheet· Clean Sheet Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 3.09 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 3/2 Hit
81% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Vancouver Whitecaps Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.91 vs 1.18 (away Points per game 2.15 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 3/1 Hit
57% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 3/0 Miss
24% Real Salt Lake Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 1.18 vs 1.91 (home Points per game 1.61 / runs allowed 1.63) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 0/4 Miss
19% Goalscorers19 Brian White Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Brian White 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Sergi Solans Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Thomas Müller Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sergi Solans 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Thomas Müller 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Bruno Caicedo Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Diego Luna Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Diego Luna 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Emmanuel Sabbi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Bruno Caicedo 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Emmanuel Sabbi 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Brian White 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Aiden Hezarkhani Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Aiden Hezarkhani 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Morgan Guilavogui Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Morgan Guilavogui 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Sergi Solans 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Thomas Müller 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Real Salt Lake KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 1:30 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Vancouver Whitecaps MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 22.0%
Draw 24.0%
Away win 54.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Real Salt Lake 11.1–32.9%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Vancouver Whitecaps 40.8–67.2%
Vancouver Whitecaps leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.73 more expected goals). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 5 8 8 5 2 1 5 11 10 6 3 1 2 3 6 6 4 2 3 1 2 2 2 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 59%
Under 2.5 goals 41%
Both teams score 60%
Real Salt Lake clean sheet 15%
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet 31% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
