Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs — NBA win probability & player stat model

Final NBA

Away

Atlanta Hawks

123116

Home

San Antonio Spurs

Frost Bank CenterOct 9 (Fri) · 12:00 AM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Atlanta Hawks9%

San Antonio Spurs91%

Locked before start

Atlanta HawksAway Win· Away Team · Win Probability9%Hit
Bothtotal runs 228.5 Over· Totals Over50%Hit
Bothtotal runs 228.5 Under· Totals Under50%Miss

Showing 3 of 10 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 0-1 vs 1-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 1)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.000 vs 0.500

-30.0%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

Atlanta HawksSan Antonio Spurs

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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