Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks — NBA win probability & player stat model

Final NBA

Away

Memphis Grizzlies

132123

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Atlanta Hawks

State Farm ArenaOct 5 (Mon) · 11:00 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Memphis Grizzlies50%

Atlanta Hawks50%

Locked before start

Memphis GrizzliesAway Win· Away Team · Win Probability50%Hit
Bothtotal runs 228.5 Under· Totals Under51%Miss
Memphis Grizzliesteam assists 27.5 Over· Team AST51%

Showing 3 of 10 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 0-1 vs 1-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 0)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.000 vs 1.000

-40.0%p

absences

home 1 / away 0

-3.6%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

Memphis GrizzliesAtlanta Hawks

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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