Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors — Game center Scheduled NBA
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Miami Heat 41%
Toronto Raptors 59%
Behind the probability season record 0-0 vs 0-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Head to head Miami Heat Toronto Raptors
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
Explore the models All Players Game
Spread6 Miami Heat within 10 pts· Spread +9.5 High
expected margin 2.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
72% Miami Heat within 6 pts· Spread +5.5 Medium
expected margin 2.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 6 pts or wins
60% Miami Heat within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Toronto Raptors wins by 4+· Spread -3.5 Toronto Raptors wins by 6+· Spread -5.5 Toronto Raptors wins by 10+· Spread -9.5 games4 Toronto Raptors Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-0 vs 0-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
59% Both total runs 230.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 230.5 Under· Totals Under Miami Heat Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-0 vs 0-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
41% Team stats6 Toronto Raptors team runs 114.5 Over· Team Points Toronto Raptors team assists 29.5 Over· Team AST Miami Heat team runs 116.5 Over· Team Points Miami Heat team rebounds 46.5 Over· Team REB Toronto Raptors team rebounds 42.5 Over· Team REB Miami Heat team assists 29.5 Over· Team AST strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
