Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors — NBA win probability & player stat model

Final NBA

Away

Miami Heat

129105

Home

Toronto Raptors

Videotron CentreOct 3 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Miami Heat41%

Toronto Raptors59%

Locked before start

Miami HeatAway Win· Away Team · Win Probability41%Hit
Bothtotal runs 230.5 Over· Totals Over50%Hit
Bothtotal runs 230.5 Under· Totals Under50%Miss

Showing 3 of 10 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 0-1 vs 1-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.000 vs 1.000

-40.0%p

absences

home 0 / away 1

+3.6%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

Miami HeatToronto Raptors

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

Explore the models

Spread6

games4

Team stats6

strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime.

Newsletter

One email per day. No picks, no spam.

Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice

Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

Explore the models

Get today's probabilities in your inbox