Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors — Game center NBA
Oct 3 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Live estimate Miami Heat 93%
Toronto Raptors 7%
Locked before start
Miami Heat within 10 pts· Spread +9.5 72% Miami Heat within 6 pts· Spread +5.5 60% Miami Heat within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 54% Showing 3 of 14 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 0-0 vs 0-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· Live adjusted (Q2 5:43· 55 - 40 applied)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Miami Heat Toronto Raptors
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Miami Heat Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-0 vs 0-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· Live adjusted (Q2 5:43· 55 - 40 applied)
runs 55/41 Live
93% Both total runs 230.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 230.5 Under· Totals Under Toronto Raptors Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-0 vs 0-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· Live adjusted (Q2 5:43· 55 - 40 applied)
runs 40/56 Live
7% Spread6 Miami Heat within 10 pts· Spread +9.5 High
expected margin 2.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
72% Miami Heat within 6 pts· Spread +5.5 Medium
expected margin 2.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 6 pts or wins
60% Miami Heat within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Toronto Raptors wins by 4+· Spread -3.5 Toronto Raptors wins by 6+· Spread -5.5 Toronto Raptors wins by 10+· Spread -9.5 Team stats6 Toronto Raptors team runs 114.5 Over· Team Points Toronto Raptors team assists 29.5 Over· Team AST Miami Heat team runs 116.5 Over· Team Points Miami Heat team rebounds 46.5 Over· Team REB Toronto Raptors team rebounds 42.5 Over· Team REB Miami Heat team assists 29.5 Over· Team AST strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
