Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies — NBA win probability & player stat model

Final NBA

Away

Orlando Magic

122118

Home

Memphis Grizzlies

FedExForumOct 8 (Thu) · 12:00 AM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Orlando Magic3%

Memphis Grizzlies97%

Locked before start

Orlando MagicAway Win· Away Team · Win Probability3%Hit
Memphis Grizzliesteam assists 27.5 Over· Team AST51%
Bothtotal runs 225.5 Over· Totals Over50%Hit

Showing 3 of 10 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 1-1 vs 1-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.500 vs 1.000

-30.0%p

absences

home 0 / away 1

+3.6%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

Orlando MagicMemphis Grizzlies

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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