Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons — NBA win probability & player stat model

Final NBA

Away

Phoenix Suns

107109

Home

Detroit Pistons

Little Caesars ArenaOct 5 (Mon) · 11:00 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Phoenix Suns41%

Detroit Pistons59%

Locked before start

Detroit PistonsHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability59%Hit
Detroit Pistonswins by 4+· Spread -3.546%
Detroit Pistonswins by 6+· Spread -5.540%

Showing 3 of 16 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 1-0 vs 0-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

1.000 vs 0.000

+40.0%p

absences

home 0 / away 1

+3.6%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

Phoenix SunsDetroit Pistons

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

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Spread6

games4

Team stats6

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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