Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 27 (Sun) · 2:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Air Force Falcons 67%
Nevada Wolf Pack 32%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1435 vs 1429
-5.1%p Points per game
27.3 vs 34.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Air Force Falcons Nevada Wolf Pack
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 62%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 3games 80yds (per game 26.7)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 36.7· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 32.3 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
TE sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Matt Long receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gary Givens III receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Nevada Wolf Pack within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 6.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
69% Nevada Wolf Pack within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Air Force Falcons wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Nevada Wolf Pack within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Air Force Falcons wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Nevada Wolf Pack within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Air Force Falcons wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Air Force Falcons wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Air Force Falcons Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 36/34 Hit
67% Both total runs 61.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 61.5 Under· Totals Under Nevada Wolf Pack Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1435 vs 1429 (50% blend)· Points per game 27.3 vs 34.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 33/37 Miss
32% player stat32 SK Simon Kibbee receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 3games 80yds (per game 26.7)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 36.7· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 32.3 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
62% Matt Long receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gary Givens III receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Donnie Cheers receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Damien Morgan receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rocco Conti rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Adam Hrynciw receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dominic Kelley rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Simon Kibbee 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Matt Long 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Herschel Turner rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Gary Givens III 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Kemper Hodges rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Carter Jones pass yds 144.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Evan Medders pass yds 99.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Damien Morgan 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Damien Morgan 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Evan Medders pass yds 99.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Carter Jones pass yds 144.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Herschel Turner rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Gary Givens III 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Kemper Hodges rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dominic Kelley rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Simon Kibbee 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Matt Long 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Damien Morgan receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rocco Conti rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Adam Hrynciw receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Gary Givens III receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Donnie Cheers receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Simon Kibbee receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Matt Long receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Nevada Wolf Pack team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Air Force Falcons team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points Air Force Falcons Team pass yds 84.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Nevada Wolf Pack Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Nevada Wolf Pack Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Air Force Falcons Team rush yds 374.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.