Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden Gophers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Akron Zips 19%
Minnesota Golden Gophers 81%
Locked before start
Minnesota Golden Gophers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 81% Hit Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 55% Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 45% Showing 3 of 16 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1506 vs 886 (50% blend)· Points per game 35.0 vs 19.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1506 vs 886
+28.7%p Points per game
35.0 vs 19.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Akron Zips Minnesota Golden Gophers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 275yds (per game 68.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 56.4· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 63.2 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Javon Tracy receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyan Mason receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Minnesota Golden Gophers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1506 vs 886 (50% blend)· Points per game 35.0 vs 19.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/8 Hit
81% Both total runs 54.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 54.5 Under· Totals Under Akron Zips Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/42 Miss
19% Winning margin8 Akron Zips within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 15.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% Akron Zips within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Akron Zips within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Akron Zips within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 NJ Noah Jennings receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 275yds (per game 68.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 56.4· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 63.2 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Javon Tracy receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyan Mason receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Gant rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Sean Patrick receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Thomas rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Elijah Alexander receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Darius Taylor rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Javon Tracy 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Jalen Smith receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Drake Lindsey pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brayden Roggow pass yds 129.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Cibastian Broughton rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kyan Mason 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Sean Patrick 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Noah Jennings 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Noah Jennings 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Sean Patrick 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Cibastian Broughton rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kyan Mason 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Drake Lindsey pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Brayden Roggow pass yds 129.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jalen Smith receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javon Tracy 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Darius Taylor rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over TJ Thomas rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Elijah Alexander receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Gant rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Sean Patrick receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javon Tracy receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kyan Mason receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Noah Jennings receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Akron Zips team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Minnesota Golden Gophers team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Akron Zips Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Minnesota Golden Gophers Team pass yds 289.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Akron Zips Team rush yds 119.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Minnesota Golden Gophers Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.