Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Alabama Crimson Tide 59%
Mississippi State Bulldogs 41%
Locked before start
Mississippi State Bulldogs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 81% Mississippi State Bulldogs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 74% Anthony Evans III receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
43.0 vs 48.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Alabama Crimson Tide Mississippi State Bulldogs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Anthony Evans III receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sanfrisco Magee receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Fluff Bothwell rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Mississippi State Bulldogs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
81% Mississippi State Bulldogs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 5.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% Mississippi State Bulldogs within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Mississippi State Bulldogs within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Anthony Evans III receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sanfrisco Magee receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Fluff Bothwell rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Keelon Russell rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Marshall Pritchett receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kamario Taylor rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Lotzeir Brooks receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ryan Coleman-Williams 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Ryan Coleman-Williams receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Marquis Johnson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Evans III 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Daniel Hill rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kamario Taylor pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Keelon Russell pass yds 259.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Lotzeir Brooks 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Sanfrisco Magee 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Sanfrisco Magee 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Lotzeir Brooks 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Kamario Taylor pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Keelon Russell pass yds 259.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Daniel Hill rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Anthony Evans III 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Marquis Johnson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ryan Coleman-Williams receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ryan Coleman-Williams 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Lotzeir Brooks receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kamario Taylor rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Fluff Bothwell rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Keelon Russell rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Marshall Pritchett receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Evans III receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sanfrisco Magee receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Alabama Crimson Tide Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied
59% Both total runs 91.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 91.5 Over· Totals Over Mississippi State Bulldogs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 43.0 vs 48.0 (capped at ±4%p)
41% Team stats6 Mississippi State Bulldogs team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Alabama Crimson Tide team runs 48.5 Over· Team Points Alabama Crimson Tide Team pass yds 314.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Mississippi State Bulldogs Team pass yds 314.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Mississippi State Bulldogs Team rush yds 189.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Alabama Crimson Tide Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.