App State Mountaineers at NC State Wolfpack — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast App State Mountaineers 62%
NC State Wolfpack 38%
Locked before start
App State Mountaineers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 80% App State Mountaineers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 72% Davion Gause receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 59% Showing 3 of 26 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1514 vs 1320
-18.2%p Points per game
38.3 vs 34.8
-3.5%p
Head to head App State Mountaineers NC State Wolfpack
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Preston Douglas receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keenan Jackson receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sam Pickett III receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 App State Mountaineers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
80% App State Mountaineers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 3.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% App State Mountaineers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 App State Mountaineers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 NC State Wolfpack wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ NC State Wolfpack wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ NC State Wolfpack wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ NC State Wolfpack wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Preston Douglas receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keenan Jackson receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sam Pickett III receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nate Branch receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Darrin Fugitt receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nate Branch 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Sam Pickett III 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Keenan Jackson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Davion Gause receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jayden Scott rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaquari Lewis rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ja'Quez Cross rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Preston Douglas 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Malachi Singleton pass yds 229.5 Under· Pass Yds Under CJ Bailey pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Davion Gause rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under CJ Bailey pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Davion Gause rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Malachi Singleton pass yds 229.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Preston Douglas 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jayden Scott rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaquari Lewis rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ja'Quez Cross rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Davion Gause receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Keenan Jackson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Sam Pickett III 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Nate Branch 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Darrin Fugitt receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Keenan Jackson receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sam Pickett III receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nate Branch receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Preston Douglas receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 App State Mountaineers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/42 Miss
62% Both total runs 73.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 73.5 Over· Totals Over NC State Wolfpack Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1514 vs 1320 (50% blend)· Points per game 38.3 vs 34.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/32 Hit
38% Team stats6 App State Mountaineers team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points NC State Wolfpack team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points App State Mountaineers Team pass yds 294.5 Over· Team Pass Yds NC State Wolfpack Team rush yds 224.5 Over· Team Rush Yds App State Mountaineers Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds NC State Wolfpack Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.