Arizona State Sun Devils at Kansas Jayhawks — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Arizona State Sun Devils 56%
Kansas Jayhawks 44%
Locked before start
Arizona State Sun Devils Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 56% Hit Kansas Jayhawks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 64% Dylan Edwards 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 64% Showing 3 of 21 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1481 vs 1535
+4.6%p Points per game
29.7 vs 38.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Arizona State Sun Devils Kansas Jayhawks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 64%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning season 3games 9x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Reed Harris receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nik McMillan receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Kansas Jayhawks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
64% Arizona State Sun Devils wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Kansas Jayhawks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Arizona State Sun Devils wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Kansas Jayhawks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Arizona State Sun Devils wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Kansas Jayhawks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Arizona State Sun Devils wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 DE Dylan Edwards 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 3games 9x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
64% Reed Harris receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nik McMillan receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nahzae Cox receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tate Nagy receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Marquis Gillis rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Omarion Miller receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grayson Rigdon receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dylan Edwards rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Marshall rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nik McMillan 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kyson Brown rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Marshall pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Cutter Boley pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Omarion Miller 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Reed Harris 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Reed Harris 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Omarion Miller 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Cutter Boley pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Isaiah Marshall pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kyson Brown rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nik McMillan 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Dylan Edwards rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Isaiah Marshall rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Grayson Rigdon receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Marquis Gillis rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Omarion Miller receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nik McMillan receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nahzae Cox receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tate Nagy receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Reed Harris receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dylan Edwards 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over games4 Arizona State Sun Devils Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/18 Hit
56% Both total runs 67.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 67.5 Under· Totals Under Kansas Jayhawks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1481 vs 1535 (50% blend, 중립 park Home edge none)· Points per game 29.7 vs 38.0 (capped at ±4%p)· neutral venue (home edge removed)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/25 Miss
44% Team stats6 Kansas Jayhawks team runs 29.5 Over· Team Points Arizona State Sun Devils team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Kansas Jayhawks Team rush yds 189.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Arizona State Sun Devils Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arizona State Sun Devils Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Kansas Jayhawks Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.