Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 3 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Arkansas Razorbacks 8%
Texas A&M Aggies 92%
Locked before start
Texas A&M Aggies Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 92% Hit Arkansas Razorbacks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 35% Ty Lockwood 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 60% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-2 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 31.3 vs 23.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
31.3 vs 23.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Arkansas Razorbacks Texas A&M Aggies
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Chris Marshall receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ismael Cisse receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ty Lockwood 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Texas A&M Aggies Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-2 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 31.3 vs 23.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 34/8 Hit
92% Both total runs 54.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 54.5 Under· Totals Under Arkansas Razorbacks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 3-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/35 Miss
8% Winning margin8 Texas A&M Aggies wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 31.3 vs 23.0 → expected margin 8.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
86% Texas A&M Aggies wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 31.3 vs 23.0 → expected margin 8.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
80% Texas A&M Aggies wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Texas A&M Aggies wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Arkansas Razorbacks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Arkansas Razorbacks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Arkansas Razorbacks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Arkansas Razorbacks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Chris Marshall receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ismael Cisse receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ty Lockwood 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under KJ Edwards rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mario Craver receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Terry Bussey receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under KJ Jackson rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chris Marshall 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Jamari Hawkins receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Isaiah Horton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under KJ Jackson pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rueben Owens II rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Marcel Reed pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Braylen Russell rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mario Craver 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaiah Horton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaiah Horton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Mario Craver 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Marcel Reed pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Braylen Russell rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rueben Owens II rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over KJ Jackson pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Isaiah Horton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamari Hawkins receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Terry Bussey receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over KJ Jackson rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chris Marshall 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over KJ Edwards rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mario Craver receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ty Lockwood 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Chris Marshall receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ismael Cisse receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Texas A&M Aggies team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas Razorbacks team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas Razorbacks Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Texas A&M Aggies Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arkansas Razorbacks Team pass yds 264.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Texas A&M Aggies Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.