Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 12:00 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Arkansas State Red Wolves 14%
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 86%
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 30.8 vs 25.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
30.8 vs 25.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Arkansas State Red Wolves Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 64%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 211yds (per game 52.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 48.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 42.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Russell Babineaux receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Reagan Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 30.8 vs 25.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
86% Both total runs 55.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 55.5 Under· Totals Under Arkansas State Red Wolves Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
14% Winning margin8 Arkansas State Red Wolves within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% Arkansas State Red Wolves within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Arkansas State Red Wolves within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Arkansas State Red Wolves within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 HS Hunter Summers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 211yds (per game 52.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 48.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 42.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
64% Russell Babineaux receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Russell Babineaux 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Anthony Reagan Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caden Jensen receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Bonelli receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Darrell Smith rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chauncy Cobb receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under KeDarius Wade receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trey Owens pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Hunter Summers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Solomon Baggett rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under James Lee rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chauncy Cobb 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Daniel Beale pass yds 89.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Landon Strother 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Landon Strother 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Daniel Beale pass yds 89.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Chauncy Cobb 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Solomon Baggett rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over James Lee rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Trey Owens pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Hunter Summers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over KeDarius Wade receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Darrell Smith rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chauncy Cobb receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caden Jensen receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaylen Bonelli receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Reagan Jr. rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Russell Babineaux receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Russell Babineaux 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Hunter Summers receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas State Red Wolves team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arkansas State Red Wolves Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Team rush yds 209.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Arkansas State Red Wolves Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.