Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned Frogs — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Arkansas State Red Wolves 10%
TCU Horned Frogs 90%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1607 vs 1320 (50% blend)· Points per game 29.3 vs 25.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1607 vs 1320
+22.4%p Points per game
29.3 vs 25.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Arkansas State Red Wolves TCU Horned Frogs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Hunter Summers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ed Small receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremy Payne rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 TCU Horned Frogs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1607 vs 1320 (50% blend)· Points per game 29.3 vs 25.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/8 Hit
90% Both total runs 54.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 54.5 Under· Totals Under Arkansas State Red Wolves Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/32 Miss
10% Winning margin8 Arkansas State Red Wolves within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
75% Arkansas State Red Wolves within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 4.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% Arkansas State Red Wolves within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 TCU Horned Frogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Arkansas State Red Wolves within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 TCU Horned Frogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ TCU Horned Frogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ TCU Horned Frogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Hunter Summers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ed Small receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremy Payne rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jon Denman rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaylen Bonelli receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chauncy Cobb receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kari Ashley receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under James Lee rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremy Scott receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Solomon Baggett rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaden Craig pass yds 229.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Hunter Summers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Trey Owens pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kari Ashley 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Chauncy Cobb 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ed Small 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Ed Small 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Kari Ashley 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Chauncy Cobb 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Trey Owens pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaden Craig pass yds 229.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Hunter Summers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremy Scott receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Solomon Baggett rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kari Ashley receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over James Lee rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chauncy Cobb receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremy Payne rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jon Denman rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaylen Bonelli receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ed Small receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Hunter Summers receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 TCU Horned Frogs team runs 29.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas State Red Wolves team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas State Red Wolves Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds TCU Horned Frogs Team pass yds 284.5 Over· Team Pass Yds TCU Horned Frogs Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Arkansas State Red Wolves Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.