Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden Flashes — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Ball State Cardinals 46%
Kent State Golden Flashes 53%
Locked before start
Kent State Golden Flashes within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 79% Kent State Golden Flashes within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 69% Kent State Golden Flashes within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 61% Showing 3 of 29 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1039 vs 1049 (50% blend)· Points per game 16.3 vs 18.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1039 vs 1049
+3.8%p
Head to head Ball State Cardinals Kent State Golden Flashes
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Donovan Hamilton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Bonds receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Wayne Harris receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Kent State Golden Flashes within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 1.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Kent State Golden Flashes within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 1.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
69% Kent State Golden Flashes within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Ball State Cardinals wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Kent State Golden Flashes within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Ball State Cardinals wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Ball State Cardinals wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Ball State Cardinals wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Donovan Hamilton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Bonds receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Donovan Hamilton 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Wayne Harris receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Horton rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dru DeShields rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mason King rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Da'Realyst Clark receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ardell Banks receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dru DeShields pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Isaiah Thacker receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Bonds rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Keldric Luster pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Wayne Harris 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Da'Realyst Clark 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Isaiah Thacker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaiah Thacker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Wayne Harris 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Da'Realyst Clark 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Keldric Luster pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jalen Bonds rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Isaiah Thacker receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dru DeShields pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Da'Realyst Clark receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ardell Banks receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mason King rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dru DeShields rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over TJ Horton rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Wayne Harris receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jalen Bonds receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Donovan Hamilton 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Donovan Hamilton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Kent State Golden Flashes Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1039 vs 1049 (50% blend)· Points per game 16.3 vs 18.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 26/14 Hit
53% Both total runs 34.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 34.5 Over· Totals Over Ball State Cardinals Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/27 Miss
46% Team stats6 Kent State Golden Flashes team runs 16.5 Over· Team Points Ball State Cardinals team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Ball State Cardinals Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Ball State Cardinals Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Kent State Golden Flashes Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Kent State Golden Flashes Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.