Ball State Cardinals at Liberty Flames — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Ball State Cardinals 22%
Liberty Flames 77%
Locked before start
Liberty Flames Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 77% Hit Isaiah Thacker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 61% Donovan Hamilton receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 61% Showing 3 of 6 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1725 vs 1049 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.5 vs 18.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1725 vs 1049
+29.1%p Points per game
30.5 vs 18.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Ball State Cardinals Liberty Flames
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Makai Jackson receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Isaiah Thacker receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kam Davis rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Liberty Flames Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1725 vs 1049 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.5 vs 18.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 51/16 Hit
77% Both total runs 48.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 48.5 Under· Totals Under Ball State Cardinals Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 15/52 Miss
22% Winning margin8 Liberty Flames wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 30.5 vs 18.0 → expected margin 12.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
74% Liberty Flames wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 30.5 vs 18.0 → expected margin 12.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
64% Liberty Flames wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Ball State Cardinals within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Ball State Cardinals within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Liberty Flames wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Ball State Cardinals within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Ball State Cardinals within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Makai Jackson receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Isaiah Thacker receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Isaiah Thacker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kam Davis rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Makai Jackson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jalen Bonds receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Donovan Hamilton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Donovan Hamilton receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamari Person 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under TJ Horton rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Darius Copeland receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamari Person receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Deshawn Purdie pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Peyton Jones rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jalen Bonds rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Keldric Luster pass yds 129.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Keldric Luster pass yds 129.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Peyton Jones rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jalen Bonds rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Deshawn Purdie pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jamari Person receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Darius Copeland receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamari Person 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over TJ Horton rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Donovan Hamilton receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kam Davis rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Makai Jackson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jalen Bonds receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Donovan Hamilton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Isaiah Thacker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Makai Jackson receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Thacker receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Liberty Flames team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Ball State Cardinals team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Ball State Cardinals Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Ball State Cardinals Team pass yds 139.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Liberty Flames Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Liberty Flames Team rush yds 214.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.