Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 2:30 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Baylor Bears 52%
Arizona State Sun Devils 48%
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
38.0 vs 29.8
-4.0%p
Head to head Baylor Bears Arizona State Sun Devils
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Reed Harris receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Omarion Miller receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gavin Freeman receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Baylor Bears within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% Arizona State Sun Devils wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 38.0 vs 29.8 → expected margin 8.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
62% Baylor Bears within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Arizona State Sun Devils wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Baylor Bears within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Arizona State Sun Devils wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Baylor Bears within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Arizona State Sun Devils wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Reed Harris receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Omarion Miller receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gavin Freeman receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Louis Brown IV receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grayson Rigdon receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caden Knighten rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayden McGowan receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyson Brown rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cutter Boley pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Nate Bennett pass yds 144.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Marquis Gillis rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dawson Pendergrass rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Gavin Freeman 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Reed Harris 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Louis Brown IV 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Omarion Miller 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Omarion Miller 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Reed Harris 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Louis Brown IV 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Gavin Freeman 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Marquis Gillis rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dawson Pendergrass rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cutter Boley pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nate Bennett pass yds 144.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kyson Brown rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Grayson Rigdon receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caden Knighten rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jayden McGowan receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Gavin Freeman receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Louis Brown IV receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Reed Harris receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Omarion Miller receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Baylor Bears Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied
52% Both total runs 67.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 67.5 Under· Totals Under Arizona State Sun Devils Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 38.0 vs 29.8 (capped at ±4%p)
48% Team stats6 Baylor Bears team runs 29.5 Over· Team Points Arizona State Sun Devils team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Arizona State Sun Devils Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arizona State Sun Devils Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Baylor Bears Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Baylor Bears Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.