Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan Broncos — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Boise State Broncos 50%
Western Michigan Broncos 50%
Locked before start
Boise State Broncos Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 50% Hit Boise State Broncos wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 46% Western Michigan Broncos within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 79% Showing 3 of 21 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1463 vs 1665 (50% blend)· Points per game 24.0 vs 33.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1463 vs 1665
-11.8%p Points per game
24.0 vs 33.8
-4.0%p
Head to head Boise State Broncos Western Michigan Broncos
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Lolo Mataele rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rasean Jones receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aveion Chenault receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Western Michigan Broncos within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 9.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Western Michigan Broncos within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 9.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
71% Western Michigan Broncos within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Western Michigan Broncos within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Boise State Broncos wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Boise State Broncos wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Boise State Broncos wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Boise State Broncos wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Lolo Mataele rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rasean Jones receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aveion Chenault receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Egypt Nelson receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Baylin Brooks receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dylan Riley rush yds 109.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Sire Gaines receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cam Bates receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Broc Lowry pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Sire Gaines rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jalen Buckley rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Maddux Madsen pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Aveion Chenault 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Rasean Jones 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Baylin Brooks 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Cam Bates 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Cam Bates 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Baylin Brooks 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rasean Jones 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Aveion Chenault 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Maddux Madsen pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jalen Buckley rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Broc Lowry pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Sire Gaines rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cam Bates receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dylan Riley rush yds 109.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Sire Gaines receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Baylin Brooks receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Aveion Chenault receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Egypt Nelson receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rasean Jones receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lolo Mataele rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over games4 Both total runs 57.5 Over· Totals Over Boise State Broncos Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 32/8 Hit
50% Western Michigan Broncos Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1463 vs 1665 (50% blend)· Points per game 24.0 vs 33.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/33 Miss
50% Both total runs 57.5 Under· Totals Under Team stats6 Boise State Broncos team runs 33.5 Over· Team Points Western Michigan Broncos team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Boise State Broncos Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Boise State Broncos Team rush yds 264.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Western Michigan Broncos Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Western Michigan Broncos Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.