Boston College Eagles at SMU Mustangs — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Boston College Eagles 22%
SMU Mustangs 77%
Locked before start
SMU Mustangs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 77% SMU Mustangs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 80% SMU Mustangs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 71% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 37.0 vs 19.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
37.0 vs 19.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Boston College Eagles SMU Mustangs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jalen Cooper 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kendrick Raphael rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Evan Dickens rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 SMU Mustangs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 37.0 vs 19.8 → expected margin 17.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
80% SMU Mustangs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 37.0 vs 19.8 → expected margin 17.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
71% SMU Mustangs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ SMU Mustangs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Boston College Eagles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Boston College Eagles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Boston College Eagles within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Boston College Eagles within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 SMU Mustangs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 37.0 vs 19.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
77% Both total runs 56.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 56.5 Under· Totals Under Boston College Eagles Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
22% player stat32 Jalen Cooper 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kendrick Raphael rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Evan Dickens rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dawson Pough receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Johnathan Montague Jr. receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javarius Green 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Javarius Green receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Yamir Knight receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Cooper receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Yannick Smith receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mason McKenzie rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mason McKenzie pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kevin Jennings pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Dramekco Green rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Yamir Knight 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Evan Dickens 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Evan Dickens 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Yamir Knight 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Dramekco Green rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kevin Jennings pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Mason McKenzie pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Yamir Knight receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jalen Cooper receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Yannick Smith receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mason McKenzie rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javarius Green receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javarius Green 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Evan Dickens rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dawson Pough receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Johnathan Montague Jr. receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kendrick Raphael rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jalen Cooper 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Boston College Eagles team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points SMU Mustangs team runs 37.5 Over· Team Points Boston College Eagles Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds SMU Mustangs Team pass yds 339.5 Over· Team Pass Yds SMU Mustangs Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Boston College Eagles Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.