Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State Cyclones — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Bowling Green Falcons 3%
Iowa State Cyclones 97%
Locked before start
Iowa State Cyclones Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 97% Hit Iowa State Cyclones wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 84% Iowa State Cyclones wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 75% Showing 3 of 14 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 0-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1672 vs 1156 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.8 vs 8.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1672 vs 1156
+27.7%p Points per game
30.8 vs 8.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Bowling Green Falcons Iowa State Cyclones
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Omari Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aiden Flora receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Winn Sharp receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Iowa State Cyclones Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 0-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1672 vs 1156 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.8 vs 8.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 55/8 Hit
97% Both total runs 39.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 39.5 Over· Totals Over Bowling Green Falcons Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-3 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/56 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Iowa State Cyclones wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 30.8 vs 8.3 → expected margin 22.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
84% Iowa State Cyclones wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 30.8 vs 8.3 → expected margin 22.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
75% Iowa State Cyclones wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Iowa State Cyclones wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Bowling Green Falcons within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Bowling Green Falcons within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Bowling Green Falcons within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Bowling Green Falcons within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Omari Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aiden Flora receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Winn Sharp receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Eli Jacon-Duffy receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aiden Flora rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dominic Overby receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Raynor rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremiah Scoby receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Austyn Dendy rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nakai Amachree rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaylen Raynor pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jeremiah Scoby 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Aiden Flora 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jay Kastantin pass yds 144.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Omari Hayes 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Winn Sharp 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Winn Sharp 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Omari Hayes 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Aiden Flora 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jay Kastantin pass yds 144.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jeremiah Scoby 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaylen Raynor pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nakai Amachree rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Austyn Dendy rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jeremiah Scoby receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaylen Raynor rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dominic Overby receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Aiden Flora rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Eli Jacon-Duffy receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Omari Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Aiden Flora receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Winn Sharp receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Iowa State Cyclones team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Bowling Green Falcons team runs 8.5 Over· Team Points Iowa State Cyclones Team pass yds 144.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Iowa State Cyclones Team rush yds 199.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Bowling Green Falcons Team pass yds 124.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Bowling Green Falcons Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.