Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Bowling Green Falcons 9%
Miami (OH) RedHawks 91%
Locked before start
Miami (OH) RedHawks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 91% Miami (OH) RedHawks wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 92% Miami (OH) RedHawks wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 86% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 0-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 28.5 vs 8.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
28.5 vs 8.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Bowling Green Falcons Miami (OH) RedHawks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Maleek Huggins receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Austyn Dendy rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Winn Sharp receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Miami (OH) RedHawks wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 28.5 vs 8.3 → expected margin 20.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
92% Miami (OH) RedHawks wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 28.5 vs 8.3 → expected margin 20.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
86% Miami (OH) RedHawks wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Miami (OH) RedHawks wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Bowling Green Falcons within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Bowling Green Falcons within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Bowling Green Falcons within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Bowling Green Falcons within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 Miami (OH) RedHawks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 0-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 28.5 vs 8.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
91% Both total runs 36.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 36.5 Under· Totals Under Bowling Green Falcons Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-4 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
9% player stat32 Maleek Huggins receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Austyn Dendy rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Winn Sharp receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lynel Billups-Williams receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braylon Isom receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Scoby receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nakai Amachree rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Eli Jacon-Duffy receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lynel Billups-Williams 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under David McComb pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Lazaro Rogers rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rodney Nelson rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Winn Sharp 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Scoop Smith 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jay Kastantin pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jeremiah Scoby 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jeremiah Scoby 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Scoop Smith 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jay Kastantin pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Lazaro Rogers rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rodney Nelson rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Winn Sharp 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over David McComb pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Lynel Billups-Williams 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Eli Jacon-Duffy receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nakai Amachree rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Lynel Billups-Williams receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Braylon Isom receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremiah Scoby receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Winn Sharp receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Austyn Dendy rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Maleek Huggins receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Miami (OH) RedHawks team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Bowling Green Falcons team runs 8.5 Over· Team Points Miami (OH) RedHawks Team pass yds 254.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Bowling Green Falcons Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Miami (OH) RedHawks Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Bowling Green Falcons Team pass yds 159.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.