Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh Panthers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Bucknell Bison 3%
Pittsburgh Panthers 97%
Locked before start
Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 85% Pittsburgh Panthers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 97% Hit Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 77% Showing 3 of 19 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 38.4 vs 10.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
38.4 vs 10.2
+4.0%p
Head to head Bucknell Bison Pittsburgh Panthers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
TJ Cadden receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Cadden receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cataurus Hicks 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Pittsburgh Panthers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 38.4 vs 10.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 59/1 Hit
97% Both total runs 48.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 48.5 Under· Totals Under Bucknell Bison Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-4 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 0/60 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 38.4 vs 10.2 → expected margin 28.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
85% Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 38.4 vs 10.2 → expected margin 28.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
77% Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Bucknell Bison within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Bucknell Bison within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Bucknell Bison within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Bucknell Bison within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 TJ Cadden receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Cadden receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cataurus Hicks 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Damon Ferguson Jr. rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Censere Lee 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Mason Heintschel rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cataurus Hicks receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sam Milligan receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Censere Lee receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carson Kent receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Christopher Dietrich pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ty Stauffer rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Michael Cadden rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mason Heintschel pass yds 254.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Sam Milligan 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Michael Cadden 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Michael Cadden 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Sam Milligan 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Mason Heintschel pass yds 254.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Michael Cadden rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Christopher Dietrich pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ty Stauffer rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Censere Lee receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Carson Kent receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sam Milligan receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mason Heintschel rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cataurus Hicks receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Damon Ferguson Jr. rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Censere Lee 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cataurus Hicks 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Michael Cadden receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TJ Cadden receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Pittsburgh Panthers team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Bucknell Bison team runs 10.5 Over· Team Points Pittsburgh Panthers Team pass yds 354.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Pittsburgh Panthers Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Bucknell Bison Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Bucknell Bison Team rush yds 49.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.