Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Buffalo Bulls 3%
Penn State Nittany Lions 97%
Locked before start
Penn State Nittany Lions Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 97% Hit Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 78% Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 70% Showing 3 of 21 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1901 vs 1262 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.8 vs 21.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1901 vs 1262
+28.8%p Points per game
36.8 vs 21.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Buffalo Bulls Penn State Nittany Lions
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Benjamin Brahmer receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chance Morrow receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Andrews receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Penn State Nittany Lions Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1901 vs 1262 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.8 vs 21.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 55/14 Hit
97% Both total runs 58.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 58.5 Over· Totals Over Buffalo Bulls Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/56 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 36.8 vs 21.3 → expected margin 15.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
78% Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 36.8 vs 21.3 → expected margin 15.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
70% Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Buffalo Bulls within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Buffalo Bulls within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Buffalo Bulls within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Buffalo Bulls within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Benjamin Brahmer receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chance Morrow receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Andrews receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Koby Howard receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chase Sowell 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Chase Sowell receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Messiah Burch rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under James McNeil Jr. rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dwayne Early Jr. receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carson Hansen rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under James Peoples rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rocco Becht pass yds 224.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Elijah Holmes pass yds 109.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaylen Andrews 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Chance Morrow 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Koby Howard 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Koby Howard 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Chance Morrow 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Rocco Becht pass yds 224.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Elijah Holmes pass yds 109.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaylen Andrews 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over James Peoples rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Carson Hansen rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Messiah Burch rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over James McNeil Jr. rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dwayne Early Jr. receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chase Sowell receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chase Sowell 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Koby Howard receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaylen Andrews receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Benjamin Brahmer receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chance Morrow receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Buffalo Bulls team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Penn State Nittany Lions team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Buffalo Bulls Team pass yds 139.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Buffalo Bulls Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Penn State Nittany Lions Team pass yds 274.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Penn State Nittany Lions Team rush yds 204.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.