BYU Cougars at Colorado State Rams — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 12:15 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate BYU Cougars 96%
Colorado State Rams 4%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1314 vs 1692
+21.7%p Points per game
40.3 vs 44.0
+3.7%p
Head to head BYU Cougars Colorado State Rams
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Terrence Smith Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cedric Ross receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Harper receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 BYU Cougars Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/24 Hit
96% Both total runs 84.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 84.5 Under· Totals Under Colorado State Rams Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1314 vs 1692 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.3 vs 44.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 23/42 Miss
4% Winning margin8 Colorado State Rams within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
76% Colorado State Rams within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 3.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
67% Colorado State Rams within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 BYU Cougars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Colorado State Rams within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 BYU Cougars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ BYU Cougars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ BYU Cougars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Terrence Smith Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cedric Ross receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Harper receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Legend Glasker receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Walker Lyons receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Durell Robinson rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Terrence Smith Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under LJ Martin rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mel Brown rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kyler Kasper receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Harper 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Hauss Hejny pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Bear Bachmeier pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kyler Kasper 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Devaughn Eka rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Legend Glasker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Legend Glasker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Devaughn Eka rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Hauss Hejny pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Bear Bachmeier pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kyler Kasper 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jackson Harper 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Mel Brown rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kyler Kasper receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over LJ Martin rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Terrence Smith Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Durell Robinson rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Legend Glasker receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Walker Lyons receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Terrence Smith Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cedric Ross receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jackson Harper receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Colorado State Rams team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points BYU Cougars team runs 44.5 Over· Team Points Colorado State Rams Team pass yds 259.5 Over· Team Pass Yds BYU Cougars Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Colorado State Rams Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds BYU Cougars Team rush yds 294.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.