BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish BYU Cougars 80%
TCU Horned Frogs 20%
Locked before start
BYU Cougars Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 80% BYU Cougars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 65% BYU Cougars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 55% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
29.3 vs 44.0
+4.0%p
Head to head BYU Cougars TCU Horned Frogs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 63%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning season 3games 9x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Jeremy Scott receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under LJ Martin rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 BYU Cougars Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
80% Both total runs 73.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 73.5 Under· Totals Under TCU Horned Frogs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 29.3 vs 44.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
20% Winning margin8 BYU Cougars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 44.0 vs 29.3 → expected margin 14.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
65% TCU Horned Frogs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 BYU Cougars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ TCU Horned Frogs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 BYU Cougars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ TCU Horned Frogs within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 BYU Cougars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ TCU Horned Frogs within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 KK Kyler Kasper 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 3games 9x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
63% Kyler Kasper receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremy Scott receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under LJ Martin rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ed Small receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kari Ashley receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Walker Lyons receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jon Denman rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Devaughn Eka rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Legend Glasker receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Legend Glasker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Bear Bachmeier pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaden Craig pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jeremy Payne rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ed Small 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Kari Ashley 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Kari Ashley 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ed Small 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremy Payne rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaden Craig pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Bear Bachmeier pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Legend Glasker receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Legend Glasker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jon Denman rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Devaughn Eka rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Walker Lyons receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kari Ashley receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ed Small receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremy Scott receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over LJ Martin rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kyler Kasper receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kyler Kasper 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 TCU Horned Frogs team runs 29.5 Over· Team Points BYU Cougars team runs 44.5 Over· Team Points TCU Horned Frogs Team rush yds 119.5 Over· Team Rush Yds TCU Horned Frogs Team pass yds 264.5 Over· Team Pass Yds BYU Cougars Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds BYU Cougars Team rush yds 229.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.