California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish California Golden Bears 55%
UNLV Rebels 45%
Locked before start
UNLV Rebels within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 48% UNLV Rebels within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 37% Chase Hendricks receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 59% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
21.5 vs 26.0
+4.0%p
Head to head California Golden Bears UNLV Rebels
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Taeshaun Lyons receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Taz Reddicks receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chase Hendricks receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 California Golden Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 26.0 vs 21.5 → expected margin 4.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
80% California Golden Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 26.0 vs 21.5 → expected margin 4.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
71% California Golden Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ California Golden Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ UNLV Rebels within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 UNLV Rebels within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 UNLV Rebels within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 UNLV Rebels within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Taeshaun Lyons receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Taz Reddicks receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chase Hendricks receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ian Strong receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ashten Emory rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jai'Den Thomas receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Adam Mohammed receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jai'Den Thomas rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Adam Mohammed rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jackson Arnold pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jackson Arnold rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ian Strong 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Taeshaun Lyons 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Taz Reddicks 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Chase Hendricks 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Chase Hendricks 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Taz Reddicks 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Taeshaun Lyons 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Ian Strong 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jackson Arnold rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jackson Arnold pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jai'Den Thomas rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Adam Mohammed rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jai'Den Thomas receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Adam Mohammed receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ashten Emory rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ian Strong receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chase Hendricks receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Taz Reddicks receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Taeshaun Lyons receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 California Golden Bears Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied
55% Both total runs 47.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 47.5 Over· Totals Over UNLV Rebels Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 21.5 vs 26.0 (capped at ±4%p)
45% Team stats6 UNLV Rebels team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points California Golden Bears team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points California Golden Bears Team pass yds 264.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UNLV Rebels Team rush yds 199.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UNLV Rebels Team pass yds 199.5 Over· Team Pass Yds California Golden Bears Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.