Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State Seminoles — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Central Arkansas Bears 65%
Florida State Seminoles 35%
Locked before start
Central Arkansas Bears within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 79% Florida State Seminoles Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 35% Hit Micahi Danzy receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63% Showing 3 of 26 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-3 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
32.0 vs 25.0
-4.0%p
Head to head Central Arkansas Bears Florida State Seminoles
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Micahi Danzy receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Duce Robinson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ousmane Kromah rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Central Arkansas Bears within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Central Arkansas Bears within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 7.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
71% Central Arkansas Bears within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Central Arkansas Bears within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Florida State Seminoles wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Florida State Seminoles wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Florida State Seminoles wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Florida State Seminoles wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Central Arkansas Bears Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/35 Miss
65% Both total runs 57.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 57.5 Over· Totals Over Florida State Seminoles Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 32.0 vs 25.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 34/8 Hit
35% player stat32 Micahi Danzy receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Duce Robinson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ousmane Kromah rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dakarai Anderson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ty Durham receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jayvan Boggs receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jayvan Boggs 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Donovyn Omolo rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tyrell Pollard receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Washington rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ashton Daniels rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Donovyn Omolo pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ashton Daniels pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ty Durham 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Duce Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Dakarai Anderson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Dakarai Anderson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Duce Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Ty Durham 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Ashton Daniels pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Donovyn Omolo pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ashton Daniels rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jalen Washington rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jayvan Boggs 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Donovyn Omolo rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tyrell Pollard receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jayvan Boggs receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ty Durham receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dakarai Anderson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ousmane Kromah rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Duce Robinson receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Micahi Danzy receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Florida State Seminoles team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Central Arkansas Bears team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Central Arkansas Bears Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida State Seminoles Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida State Seminoles Team rush yds 189.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Central Arkansas Bears Team rush yds 239.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.