Charlotte 49ers at App State Mountaineers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 1:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Charlotte 49ers 5%
App State Mountaineers 95%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 0-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1320 vs 1123 (50% blend)· Points per game 34.8 vs 19.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1320 vs 1123
+18.4%p Points per game
34.8 vs 19.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Charlotte 49ers App State Mountaineers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Darrin Fugitt receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ja'Quez Cross rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nate Branch receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 App State Mountaineers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 0-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1320 vs 1123 (50% blend)· Points per game 34.8 vs 19.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 26/22 Hit
95% Both total runs 54.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 54.5 Under· Totals Under Charlotte 49ers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-3 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 21/27 Miss
5% Winning margin8 App State Mountaineers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 34.8 vs 19.5 → expected margin 15.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
78% App State Mountaineers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 34.8 vs 19.5 → expected margin 15.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
70% App State Mountaineers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ App State Mountaineers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Charlotte 49ers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Charlotte 49ers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Charlotte 49ers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Charlotte 49ers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Darrin Fugitt receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ja'Quez Cross rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nate Branch receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Barnes 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Sam Pickett III receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Hampton receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaquari Lewis rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Khamani Alexander rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Henry Rutledge rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaden Barnes receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Derrick Eley receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Hampton 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Malachi Singleton pass yds 254.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Cole Gonzales pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Nate Branch 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Sam Pickett III 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Nate Branch 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Sam Pickett III 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Malachi Singleton pass yds 254.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Cole Gonzales pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaylen Hampton 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaden Barnes receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Derrick Eley receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaquari Lewis rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Khamani Alexander rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Henry Rutledge rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Sam Pickett III receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaylen Hampton receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ja'Quez Cross rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nate Branch receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaden Barnes 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Darrin Fugitt receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 App State Mountaineers team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points Charlotte 49ers team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Charlotte 49ers Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds App State Mountaineers Team pass yds 334.5 Over· Team Pass Yds App State Mountaineers Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Charlotte 49ers Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.